The 2012 State Elections, Predictions, Exit Polls and the verdict.

The Assembly election of the states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur almost had the magnitude of Mini-General Election.  The stakes were high not only for the parties involved, but also for many a great leaders. The caste equations and formulae of Mayavathi, the organization and cadre loyalty of Mulayam, the piousness and oratory of Uma, the leadership ability of not one but two princes; Rahul and Akilesh, and  the silhouette and charisma of the late Indira Gandhi in priyanka’s avatar, were some of the best gimmicks in the fray.

Democracy is game of numbers, though elections were held in four states the star attraction was the largest state Uttar Pradesh. The smaller states like Goa and Manipur almost went unnoticed. The smallest of these states Goa, because of its proximity to Maharashtra and its mineral resources got some media attention. Manipur, a mystery state to most of us, perhaps the only state in where a few Individuals can isolate the state from Republic of India for months and still no one would challenge them; and the only election news from manipur, the congress won.

The blue eyed state in the whole episode was Uttar Pradesh, tricks galore were used to wrest control of the largest state of India. The State reorganization of BSP, the Religious card of BJP and Congress all failed to impress the voter of UP.

Soon after the elections, the media gets into the business of exit polls. The days between the polls and the V day belongs to a group of professionals called psephologist, these professionals predict the winners and losers based on their political, social and geographical knowledge. Another scientific way to predict is sampling method, samples of poll outcomes is collected from various areas in small number and extrapolation of the data gives winner. However thought a scientific method, the extrapolation method has failed many a times. A new model professed by the veteran economist Swaminathan Aiyar is GDP growth model. The Economics Times model has a success rate of 63% with riders like corruption, Inflation, caste and religion.     

The verdict was loud and clear, neither caste nor religion played the trick here.The voter, literate or illiterate proved his shrewdness and Judgment to the political class. The voter proved that he knows what is good for him and his society.

Off all the exit polls, Aiyar’s prediction retained its successes rate of sixty percent. One conclusion that could be drawn from the 2012 elections is, the GDP model holds well with the spoiler being the economic issues like Corruption and Inflation. Caste, Religion, and opportunistic promises cut no ice with the electorates. Political parties must introspect and refine their social policies according to the societies needs and aspirations.